Comments on: Iran, Intrade and the Revolution that wasn’t http://www.wellingtonfund.com/blog/2009/06/29/iran-intrade-and-the-revolution-that-wasnt/ News, Views & Purviews Fri, 03 Feb 2012 02:44:40 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v= hourly 1 By: John M http://www.wellingtonfund.com/blog/2009/06/29/iran-intrade-and-the-revolution-that-wasnt/comment-page-1/#comment-1708 John M Tue, 30 Jun 2009 11:25:32 +0000 http://www.wellingtonfund.com/blog/?p=2443#comment-1708 The market failed to acknowledge the corrupt mullahs in Iran. The market is only good as the information the participants receive. The leading polls showed Moussavi leading on the run up to the election. If this was a US election the market for Ahmadijead would have been a lot lower but the market did anticpate the possibility of fraud by only trading down to 20. The market failed to acknowledge the corrupt mullahs in Iran. The market is only good as the information the participants receive. The leading polls showed Moussavi leading on the run up to the election. If this was a US election the market for Ahmadijead would have been a lot lower but the market did anticpate the possibility of fraud by only trading down to 20.

]]> By: Tom Purves http://www.wellingtonfund.com/blog/2009/06/29/iran-intrade-and-the-revolution-that-wasnt/comment-page-1/#comment-1707 Tom Purves Mon, 29 Jun 2009 21:42:33 +0000 http://www.wellingtonfund.com/blog/?p=2443#comment-1707 What's interesting is that intrade also failed to signal the crack down and apparent rigging of the election. Either the rigging of the election truly was a low probability event, or intrade failed to have the prescience to predict that the incumbent regime would not allow a victory by Mousavi to happen. What’s interesting is that intrade also failed to signal the crack down and apparent rigging of the election.

Either the rigging of the election truly was a low probability event, or intrade failed to have the prescience to predict that the incumbent regime would not allow a victory by Mousavi to happen.

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