Wi-Fi: Failed Revolutions and Real Solutions
23 December 2008
Every few months, it seems, going back to the early 2000’s, someone writes an article discussing how the wireless connectivity technology commonly known as Wi-Fi (wireless fidelity) has failed to live up to its early promise. Indeed, Wi-Fi has participated in several “revolutions” that failed to revolve. Recall the Wi-Fi “hotspot revolution” of 2002-2003. Or, more recently, the “muni Wi-Fi revolution” in cities such as Philadelphia and Chicago, where Wi-Fi was lauded as the way to bring free or cheap broadband to the masses.
Unfortunately, several cycles of excessive hype haven’t helped Wi-Fi carve out an obvious niche for its use outside or on-the-go, even though it has become the ubiquitous solution for in-the-home (or office) wireless connectivity.
Part of the problem is that outside the comfortable confines of the home or office network environment, Wi-Fi is a technology that has always been in search of the right problem to solve (and at the right time). With the benefit of hindsight, it seems obvious that Wi-Fi hotspots couldn’t possibly become the Next Big Thing at a time when only a tiny percentage of devices were Wi-Fi enabled. Nor was it ever likely that Wi-Fi would overcome a massively flawed business model to bridge the “digital divide”.
Quietly though, through these ups-and-downs, the number of Wi-Fi enabled devices has continued to grow in leaps and bounds. Research firm ABI Research projects that 440 million Wi-Fi chipsets will ship in 2008. To put this number in perspective, consider that a mere 7.9 million chipsets shipped in 2001, when the “hotspot revolution” was supposed to be in its early stages. This growth is expected to continue (to a billion chipsets shipped in 2011) as more and more handsets, smart phones, and other device types have Wi-Fi connectivity.
Not surprisingly, now that people actually have Wi-Fi enabled devices, they’re starting to use them. A recent iPass Mobile Broadband Index report that tracks wireless use patterns of mobile workers around the world showed that worldwide business use of iPass Wi-Fi hotspots increased by 46% from the first half of 2007 to the first half of 2008. And for those of you with brand new iPhones or Blackberry Bolds, without a doubt there is now a broader and more diverse list of places to use your Wi-Fi device (a blog topic for another day).
Wellington Financial Fund III portfolio company, BelAir Networks, is right in the thick of these developments. As Glenn Fleishman, a well-known wireless tech journalist said in a recent article on the Ars Technica web-site, “BelAir Networks in known for powering the biggest public Wi-Fi networks in North America.” To help service providers capitalize on the growing demand for Wi-Fi access, BelAir recently introduced an indoor access point. I may be biased – we tend to like our portfolio companies – so I’ll let Glenn Fleishman tell you why this is significant (from the same Ars Technica article):
“What this node does, at last, is unite two previously demarcated network types, something that led to many of the inflated expectations and poor outcomes for early metro-stage Wi-Fi networks. BelAir may be the first company in this space to reach inside in quite this integrated a fashion, but expect to see new products, partnerships and acquisitions as the outdoor meets the indoor. The wireless LAN and wireless WAN may finally have the wall between them broken down.”
At the risk, then, of contributing to another hype cycle, the evidence seems to suggest that the current Wi-Fi ascendancy is different: more evolution than revolution, but most importantly, a real solution.
RD
One Response to “Wi-Fi: Failed Revolutions and Real Solutions”
December 24th, 2008 at 9:59 am
I like this phrase: “more evolution than revolution, but most importantly, a real solution” – it’s almost a poem