Comments on: TARP passes, but brace yourself for the second shoe to drop http://www.wellingtonfund.com/blog/2008/10/03/tarp-passes-but-brace-yourself-for-the-second-shoe-to-drop/ News, Views & Purviews Fri, 03 Feb 2012 02:44:40 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v= hourly 1 By: Mark McQueen http://www.wellingtonfund.com/blog/2008/10/03/tarp-passes-but-brace-yourself-for-the-second-shoe-to-drop/comment-page-1/#comment-1045 Mark McQueen Mon, 06 Oct 2008 19:23:09 +0000 http://www.wellingtonfund.com/blog/2008/10/03/tarp-passes-but-brace-yourself-for-the-second-shoe-to-drop/#comment-1045 Fred I'm not sure that anyone outside of these institutions (other than the auditors) can know where anything is being marked. The 22 cent Merrill deal you refer to was a true firesale exit. Look at Lehman. They were holding billions of European real estate at 97.9 cents on the dollar, when some of their U.S. real estate was in the 60s. If write-ups are coming, then in some ways there is no reason for the TARP to have passed. The various institutional investors around the world could have easily bought these "packages" if they were already marked down below their intrinsic value. The TARP is being put in place as many of these assets are "no bid", which means that whatever marks are currently in place must be true guesstimates. So far, we've seen nothing to date from Wall Street that suggests they've been overly conservative. MRM Fred

I’m not sure that anyone outside of these institutions (other than the auditors) can know where anything is being marked. The 22 cent Merrill deal you refer to was a true firesale exit. Look at Lehman. They were holding billions of European real estate at 97.9 cents on the dollar, when some of their U.S. real estate was in the 60s. If write-ups are coming, then in some ways there is no reason for the TARP to have passed. The various institutional investors around the world could have easily bought these “packages” if they were already marked down below their intrinsic value. The TARP is being put in place as many of these assets are “no bid”, which means that whatever marks are currently in place must be true guesstimates.

So far, we’ve seen nothing to date from Wall Street that suggests they’ve been overly conservative.

MRM

]]> By: Fred http://www.wellingtonfund.com/blog/2008/10/03/tarp-passes-but-brace-yourself-for-the-second-shoe-to-drop/comment-page-1/#comment-1044 Fred Sun, 05 Oct 2008 13:00:41 +0000 http://www.wellingtonfund.com/blog/2008/10/03/tarp-passes-but-brace-yourself-for-the-second-shoe-to-drop/#comment-1044 Hey Mark...I guess the big question is where are the banks holding these things. The last (only?) deal we have seen was at 22 cents. If these are really at the "Bernanke Fire Sale" price, the banks may get a write up on these moves. Hey Mark…I guess the big question is where are the banks holding these things. The last (only?) deal we have seen was at 22 cents. If these are really at the “Bernanke Fire Sale” price, the banks may get a write up on these moves.

]]> By: Pete Toth http://www.wellingtonfund.com/blog/2008/10/03/tarp-passes-but-brace-yourself-for-the-second-shoe-to-drop/comment-page-1/#comment-1042 Pete Toth Sat, 04 Oct 2008 14:38:42 +0000 http://www.wellingtonfund.com/blog/2008/10/03/tarp-passes-but-brace-yourself-for-the-second-shoe-to-drop/#comment-1042 Ah, but of course... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aVVOrzOIBedo&refer=news Can you say HALIBURTON? Ah, but of course…

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aVVOrzOIBedo&refer=news

Can you say HALIBURTON?

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