Comments on: Was Intrade telling us this all weekend? http://www.wellingtonfund.com/blog/2008/09/29/was-intrade-telling-us-this-all-weekend/ News, Views & Purviews Fri, 03 Feb 2012 02:44:40 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v= hourly 1 By: Nigel Eccles http://www.wellingtonfund.com/blog/2008/09/29/was-intrade-telling-us-this-all-weekend/comment-page-1/#comment-1033 Nigel Eccles Tue, 30 Sep 2008 07:54:24 +0000 http://www.wellingtonfund.com/blog/2008/09/29/was-intrade-telling-us-this-all-weekend/#comment-1033 Prediction markets are exceptional at opinion aggregation. They are also more immune to editorial bias as their forecasts are made up of many 100s and 1,000s of traders predictions. We run a prediction market called Hubdub (http://www.hubdub.com). We are currently forecasting there to be a 71% chance that a bill passes by the end of October: http://www.hubdub.com/m17770/Will_the_US_Congress_pass_a_bailout_package_by_the_end_of_October Prediction markets are exceptional at opinion aggregation. They are also more immune to editorial bias as their forecasts are made up of many 100s and 1,000s of traders predictions.

We run a prediction market called Hubdub (http://www.hubdub.com). We are currently forecasting there to be a 71% chance that a bill passes by the end of October: http://www.hubdub.com/m17770/Will_the_US_Congress_pass_a_bailout_package_by_the_end_of_October

]]> By: Mark McQueen http://www.wellingtonfund.com/blog/2008/09/29/was-intrade-telling-us-this-all-weekend/comment-page-1/#comment-1032 Mark McQueen Tue, 30 Sep 2008 01:12:09 +0000 http://www.wellingtonfund.com/blog/2008/09/29/was-intrade-telling-us-this-all-weekend/#comment-1032 Craig Great work. It is staggering to think that this site knew at 9am that the chances of the "bailout" vote passing had dropped to just 10%. In the first 30 minutes of trading, the Dow was down about 225 points and sat there until just after 1:40pm. Once the vote news was out, it fell another 300 points. Folks who paid attention to this site and the Congressional mood change it foretold, despite what we were hearing on TV from House Leaders, saved themselves plenty of money. MRM Craig

Great work. It is staggering to think that this site knew at 9am that the chances of the “bailout” vote passing had dropped to just 10%. In the first 30 minutes of trading, the Dow was down about 225 points and sat there until just after 1:40pm. Once the vote news was out, it fell another 300 points.

Folks who paid attention to this site and the Congressional mood change it foretold, despite what we were hearing on TV from House Leaders, saved themselves plenty of money.

MRM

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